Tourney History: Thanks to its 2008 championship run, Kansas is one of the top performing schools in the 64-team era, having reached the Final Four seven times and cut down the net twice. Surprisingly, though, the Jayhawks aren’t exactly major overachievers. Their +.244 PASE ranks just 24th out of the 99 schools that have been to the dance at least six times. Much of the blame for failing to live up to seed expectations actually goes to Bill Self. For the first four years of his tenure as Kansas, Self was a big disappointment, posting a -.565 PASE and getting upset two years in a row as a three and four seed. After 2008, however, something tells me all was forgiven in Jayhawk nation. Then Kansas followed up their championship with a second straight overperforming run last year. This year, with the high expectations Kansas has on their backs, nothing short of a Final Four run will make the 2010 tourney a success.
2010 Outlook: Kansas is the favorite to win the tourney this year, but this isn't the juggernaut team that the Tar Heels were last year. Sure, they have solid pieces in Collins, Aldrich and Taylor--and a load of depth, including guard Xavier Henry and forward Thomas Robinson. But the Jayhawk's success will depend on the development of the frontcourt players supporting Aldrich. Will the Morris brothers progress this year? Will other players step up? After an off-season of troubles and distractions, it will be Bill Self's job to ensure that his team has the right chemistry going down the stretch--and that can be difficult with so many players competing for time. I wouldn't be surprised if Kansas wins the 2010 tourney; but this is one year I think that the odds-on favorite doesn't get it done. Put the Jayhawks down for a Final Four run, but no farther.
Key Question: Can Self keep all his talent happy with playing time--and is the frontcourt around Aldrich good enough?
