BRACKET STRATEGY #2: Upset/Toss-up Rules

Risk: High

Results: 2006 – 96th percentile in ESPN Tourney Challenge; 2007 – 33rd percentile; 2008 – 51st percentile; 2009 – 22nd percentile. 2010 – 74th percentile; 2011 – 12th percentile OVERALL AVERAGE – 48.0 percentile.

Strategy: Resolve all games with the Upset and Toss-up rules defined in the corresponding articles in the “Feature Articles” section. Only allow upsets if the conditions yield better than 50 percent odds of the Cinderella winning.

Outlook: Because this strategy allows for more upsets, its results are volatile. This model debuted in 2006 in the 96th percentile of the ESPN Tourney Challenge, dropped to the 33rd percentile for 2007’s “by-the-numbers” tourney, rose just over the midway percentile in 2008—and absolutely cratered in 2009, coming in ninth out of the 11 models I posted. 2010’s 74th percentile showing was respectable, but last year saw it’s worst performance. The model picked 16 upsets, including Gonzaga, Missouri and Richmond. The failing, though, was pushing the wrong longshots to reach the Final Four. It had 11 seed Missouri getting to the final weekend—not VCU. Go figure.