BRACKET STRATEGY #2: Upset/Toss-up Rules

Risk: Medium

Results: 2006 – 96th percentile in ESPN Tourney Challenge; 2007 – 33rd percentile; 2008 – 51st percentile; 2009 – 22nd percentile. OVERALL AVERAGE – 50.5 percentile.

Strategy: Resolve all games with the Upset and Toss-up rules defined in the corresponding articles in the “Results Analysis” section

Outlook: Because this strategy allows for more upsets, its results are volatile. This model debuted in 2006 in the 96th percentile of the ESPN Tourney Challenge, dropped to the 33rd percentile for 2007’s “by-the-numbers” tourney, rose just over the midway percentile in 2008—and absolutely cratered in 2009, coming in ninth out of the 11 models I posted. This year, the model spit out the average number of upsets (eight). That's good--but you might not have the stomach to send Washington to the Sweet 16...or Murray State! After some early round craziness, though, this settles into Chalkyville, which, considering the parity of the field, is a risky strategy in itself. The bracket culminates with a 1v1 matchup I can't see happening: Syracuse versus Kentucky. Remember this: my models don't factor in injuries...and with Onuaku day-to-day, picking Orange is risky business.

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