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Model 1: From the Gut
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Model 2: Upset/Toss-up Rules
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Model 3: Final Four/Champ NEW!!
Model 4: Combined PASE - Model 5: Factors PASE - Model 6: Tempo-free Pythag Model 7: Pythag + Coach PASE - Model 8: Game Play Attributes - Model 9: Seed Match-ups Model 10: Upset Special - Model 11: Keeper Bracket - 2009 Preview 2010 Team Stats - Historical Brackets BRACKET STRATEGY #1: Straight from the Gut Risk: Medium Results: 2005 – 94th percentile in ESPN Tourney Challenge; 2006 – 63rd percentile; 2007 – 88th percentile; 2008 – 49th percentile. OVERALL AVERAGE – 68.5 percentile Strategy: In Malcolm Gladwell’s bestseller “Blink,” he advises “…on straight-forward choices, deliberate analysis is best. When questions of analysis and personal choice start to get complicated—when we have to juggle many different variables—then our unconscious thought processes may be superior.” This is the strategy in which I take Gladwell’s advice. As soon as the bracket is set, I take all of five minutes to fill it out without checking any of my numbers or second-guessing myself. Pure from-the-gut instinct. ‘Nuf said. Outlook: I’ve done okay with this “strategy” over the last four years, but my gut was least trustworthy last year…so that’s a tad worrisome. I’ve got three one seeds advancing to the Final Four and only one three seed (Missouri). I’ve called a couple upsets, but in this wide-open tourney, I don’t think I’ve picked enough. See what you think. |