Average scoring margins for first round matchups:

What is the value of a single seed position advantage in tourney matchups? If you tally up the scoring margins for each matchup in the tourney and divide by the seed gap between the two teams, you can arrive at a value for “margin per single seed gap.” This value could come in handy when assessing the validity of point spreads for tourney matchups.

Take the opening round. Here are the average scoring margins for the higher- seeded teams over their lower- seeded opponents:



You can see why one seeds are a perfect 104- 0 against 16 seeds; they own a 25.3 point- per- game scoring margin over their out- matched opponents. Compare that to the fortunes of two seeds against 15 seeds. Sure, two seeds still own a dominant 100- 4 record over 15 seeds, but their average scoring margin is 8.5 points tighter than that of one seeds. This is the biggest drop from one first- round matchup to the next. Why such a difference? My guess because 16 seeds are markedly worse teams than 15 seeds. Pythag values bear that out.

A couple of other things jump out at me about this chart. First of all, you can see why I don’t advocate picking an upset until the 5v12 matchup. There’s a considerable drop- off in the average scoring margins between 4v13 and 5v12 games. The second thing I noticed—and this is what got me thinking about the whole idea of “margin per seed gap”—is how uniform the seed differences and margins are for 3v14 and 4v13 matchups.

In the 3v14 matchups, there’s an 11 seed difference between the combatants—and the scoring margin is about 11 points. In 4v13 matchups, there’s a gap of nine seeds, and the average scoring margin is about nine points. So is the value of a single seed gap also a single margin point?

Close, but not quite. For the top two matchups, the margin per seed gap is higher. Top seeds enjoy a 15- seed advantage and 25.3 point average margin over 16 seeds. That works out to 1.7 points per seed gap. Two seeds own a margin per seed gap of 1.3 points. And for the more hotly contested matchups in the first round, the margin per seed gap is actually less than a single point. Look at the celebrated 5v12 matchup. The value of a single seed difference there is just a 0.7 point scoring margin.

Overall, in first- round matchups, the value of a single seed position difference is an average scoring margin of 1.16 points. My guess is that this number is slightly inflated by the 1v16 and 2v15 matchups, which typically involves underdogs that are considerably worse than 11 through 14 seeds. In coming blogs, I’ll analyze the remaining rounds and arrive at the final value of a single- seed advantage.

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Average scoring margins for first round matchups: What is the value of a single seed position advantage in tourney matchups? If you tally up the scoring margins for each matchup in the tourney and divide by the seed gap between the two teams, you can arrive at a value for “margin per single seed gap.” This value could come in handy when assessing the validity of point spreads for tourney matchups. Take the opening round. Here are the average scoring margins for the higher- seeded teams over their lower- seeded opponents: <IMG SRC=/ blog/ 11_ rd1_ margins.gif> You can see why one seeds are a perfect 104- 0 against 16 seeds; they own a 25.3 point- per- game scoring margin over their out- matched opponents. Compare that to the fortunes of two seeds against 15 seeds. Sure, two seeds still own a dominant 100- 4 record over 15 seeds, but their average scoring margin is 8.5 points tighter than that of one seeds. This is the biggest drop from one first- round matchup to the next. Why such a difference? My guess because 16 seeds are markedly worse teams than 15 seeds. Pythag values bear that out. A couple of other things jump out at me about this chart. First of all, you can see why I don’t advocate picking an upset until the 5v12 matchup. There’s a considerable drop- off in the average scoring margins between 4v13 and 5v12 games. The second thing I noticed—and this is what got me thinking about the whole idea of “margin per seed gap”—is how uniform the seed differences and margins are for 3v14 and 4v13 matchups. In the 3v14 matchups, there’s an 11 seed difference between the combatants—and the scoring margin is about 11 points. In 4v13 matchups, there’s a gap of nine seeds, and the average scoring margin is about nine points. So is the value of a single seed gap also a single margin point? Close, but not quite. For the top two matchups, the margin per seed gap is higher. Top seeds enjoy a 15- seed advantage and 25.3 point average margin over 16 seeds. That works out to 1.7 points per seed gap. Two seeds own a margin per seed gap of 1.3 points. And for the more hotly contested matchups in the first round, the margin per seed gap is actually less than a single point. Look at the celebrated 5v12 matchup. The value of a single seed difference there is just a 0.7 point scoring margin. Overall, in first- round matchups, the value of a single seed position difference is an average scoring margin of 1.16 points. My guess is that this number is slightly inflated by the 1v16 and 2v15 matchups, which typically involves underdogs that are considerably worse than 11 through 14 seeds. In coming blogs, I’ll analyze the remaining rounds and arrive at the final value of a single- seed advantage.