YOUR GUIDE TO EVERY SEED MATCH-UP
If you consult only one source to make your bracket picks this year, this is it. Every seed match-up that has ever occurred in the 23-year history of the 64/65-team era is analyzed here. Want to know the factors that lead to upsets in each match-up—or which favorites are most likely to stave off darkhorse uprsings? Check out the round-by-round match-up analyses here.
1v16 | 92-0, 1.000 | ’06>’07: No change (NC)
For 23 years and 92 games, top seeds have maintained their perfect record of dominance against No. 16 seeds. Here’s an idea: let’s put a moratorium on talk of expanding the number of teams in the tourney until a No. 16 finally springs the ultimate upset. Then we’ll know that there’s enough parity in college basketball to warrant a bigger dance.
2v15 | 88-4, .957 | ’06>’07: +.002
Once every six years or so, a No. 15 seed shocks a No. 2 seed. The
last victim was
Upset watch: All the No. 15 seed Cinderellas came
into the tourney winning nine of their last ten games and at least three in a
all had regular-season records no higher than .800, indicating that they played
their share of tough teams. And they all got balanced scoring from the back-
and frontcourt, averaging between 37% and 58% of their scoring from guards. No.
15 seeds satisfying these three attributes are 4-10 against their No. 2 seed
opponents. The rest of the No. 15 seeds are 0-78. Last year,
3v14 | 77-15, .837 | ’06>’07: +.007
Two out of every three tourneys are bad news for No. 3 seeds. The 2006 Iowa Hawkeyes and 2005 Kansas Jayhawks were most recently victimized. No. 3 seeds are nearly four times more prone to first-round upsets than two seeds. More amazingly, they’re less likely to win one game in the tourney than top seeds are to win two. (Only 12 No. 1 seeds have failed to reach the Sweet Sixteen.) But it still doesn’t make any sense to pick No. 3 seeds to lose in round one. Too many have won championships to eliminate them early.
watch: The No. 14
seeds most likely to spring upsets are high scoring squads averaging more than 76.5
points a game. They’re 13-23 (.361) while their lower scoring counterparts are
just 2-54 (.036). The tell-tale sign of a No. 3 seed victim is a tight margin
of victory. No. 3 seeds that beat opponents by an average of less than 12
points are five times more prone to upsets (13 losses in 51 tries for a 25.5%
upset rate) than No. 3 seeds that win by a comfortable margin (only 2 losses in
41 tries for an 4.9% upset rate). The closest 3v14 game in 2007 was