ABOUT THE RATINGS – The
“Top 3” rankings on the home page are calculated using PASE (“Performance Against Seed Expectations”) analysis. As you’ll read in the
following Glossary of Bracket Science Terms, PASE is calculated by tallying the
positive or negative differences between actual and expected wins at each seed
position. The total of these differences is then divided by the number of
appearances to arrive at an average number of games the coach, conference, team
or attribute either over-performs or under-performs per tournament.
As a handy reference, the graph below shows the average number of wins that a team with each seed wins per tourney.
BRACKET SCIENCE TERMS
ARF (Ability to Reach the Final Four) – A calculation that measures the ability of a team to reach the Final Four based on the expected success rate of average teams with a similar seed position. ARF is calculated by taking the positive and negative differences between a given team’s actual and expected Final Four appearances at each seed position. The total of these differences is then subtracted from and divided by a team’s number of appearance. For instance, the average No. 1 seed reaches the Final Four .409 times. The average No. 2 seed makes the semis .216 times. If a given school had appeared as a one seed four times and a two seed four times, they should’ve reached the Final Four 2.5 times ([.409x4] + [.216x4]). If that team actually reached the semis four times, then their ARF would be 27.3% (1.5 extra Final Four trips divided by the 8 minus 2.5 teams that weren’t expected to make the tourney). In other words, the given team sent 27.3% squads to the semis than they were expected to.
Attribute – Any measurable characteristic that a team possesses, from the experience of its coach and seed position to its conference affiliation, points scored, points allowed, and more. The 18 boxes in the Bracketmaster™ are just a few examples of the attributes analyzed in Bracket Science articles. “Attribute” is often used interchangeably with “factor.”
Bracketmaster™ – The searchable, on-line NCAA tourney research tool exclusively available on www.bracketscience.com. The Bracketmaster allows you to find tourney records based on any combination of 18 attributes. At its simplest, you can find out the tourney record of your favorite team. An example of a more complicated use would be researching the record of your favorite team when they’re seeded No. 1 through No. 4, missed last year’s tourney, hold opponents below 65 points a game—and get at least 50% of their points from guards.
Contender Seed – Teams seeded third through sixth in the tournament.
Factor – Any measurable characteristic that a team possesses, from the experience of its coach and seed position to its conference affiliation, points scored, points allowed, and more. The 18 boxes in the Bracketmaster™ are just a few examples of the factors analyzed in Bracket Science articles. “Factor” is often used interchangeably with “attribute.”
Favorite Seed – Teams seeded first or second in the tournament.
Longshot Seed – Teams seeded eleventh through fourteenth in the tournament.
PASE (Performance Against Seed Expectations) – The average number of wins a team attains above or below the number its seed position would dictate that it achieves. PASE is calculated by tallying the positive or negative differences between actual and expected wins at each seed position. The total of these differences is then divided by the number of appearances to arrive at an average number of games the team either over-performs or under-performs per tournament. For instance, the average No. 1 seed wins 3.32 games per tourney, while the average No. 2 seed nets 2.41 wins per dances. If a given coach appeared in the tournament once as a top seed and again as a No. 2 seed, his expected win total would be 5.75 games. If he actually won seven games, he would’ve “overperformed” by 1.25 games for his two appearances—for a healthy PASE value of +0.625 (1.25/2 appearances).
Pushover Seed – Teams seeded fifteenth or sixteenth in the tournament.
Toss-up Game – Any game in which the seed difference between the two teams is three or fewer.
Toss-up Seed – Teams seeded seventh through tenth in the tournament.
UPV (Upset Predictor Value) – A calculation that measures the combined accuracy and frequency of a given factor, or “rule,” in predicting upsets. UPV measures both the degree to which a given rule increases the odds of picking an upset (its accuracy) and how many upsets it describes (its frequency). Here’s an example: Longshots have won 17.3% of the 480 games in which an upset could happen in round one. These giant killers are rarely 15 or 16 seeds. By eliminating these teams from consideration, you improve your chances of picking an upset by 42%—a 24.6% winning rate (79-241) versus 17.3%. Just as importantly, 79 of 83 first-round Cinderellas satisfy this rule. By multiplying the increase (42%) above the typical upset rate by the percentage of upsets described (95%) we arrive at the “Upset Predictor Value,” or UPV, for the “15-16 seed exclusion” rule: an even 40.0. When you evaluate rules by their UPV, you’re better able to compare their relative worth in predicting upsets.
Upset Game – Any game in which the seed difference between the favored team and the underdog is four or more.